Three Things: Cracks in the live events comeback story foundation. What, why and what's next?

Three Things I Learned This Week In Saas, Sports, Tech & Live Events: Major cracks are showing in the live events ticketing comeback narrative, as shared by Ben Fischer (SBJ) Jacob Feldman (Sportico) and Ethan Strauss. Three Things we learned from these pieces and what to watch going forward. 1. Show rates are way down, and it's not just companies. We've been seeing the low scan rates all year in company owned tickets (usually 70% of company tickets get scanned at the gate. It's been around 40% in 2021) but it's now clear it's not just companies. In talking to a number of teams this week, Show rate is hurting most everywhere. (There are some surprising exceptions). Per Caps are down for all but the outlier teams - meaning customers are no-showing which hurts parking, merchandise, food and beverage and discretionary spend. If it doesn't recover, these lower numbers would theoretically lead to lower guarantees from the providers in future deals. Covid is a big part, but there's a concern it's not the only part in an economy where fans have had everything delivered to their homes for 20+ months. 2. More supply is coming. Much more. There could be a tectonic shift in ticketing pricing, selling and distribution starting next year when we have the busiest live events market we've ever seen with 2x to 4x the number of concert tours on the market. Vivid Seats guesstimated $4.6 trillion saved during the pandemic would be spent and tickets would be a part of that spend. Let's hope. So far, it's not happening. Vivid's earnings report cited "pent up demand" in 2022….let's hope so. 3. Yields are down for too many. Season ticket holders aren't recouping their costs. Companies aren't seeing customers willing to attend or even employees willing to come back to city centers- as only 28% have returned to Manhattan and less than 50% anticipate doing so by Jan. Those impacts don't hit teams in the pocketbook directly until renewal season this coming summer ('22). Fans will be asked to renew season tickets while there are more events than ever going on simultaneously. The marketplaces/primaries aren't, and won't, feel any pain for quite awhile as volume will buoy their businesses. But they aren't insulated either, their conversations are just a little further out. 4. The next generation doesn't want to work in sports. Spent the week talking to a number of teams, leagues, venues and sports recruiters. In the old days, teams could offer less money and more hours to dreamers looking to work for their favorite teams. During the pandemic, a record number of sports execs left the industry for more money and better balance elsewhere. They aren't returning. More importantly, the next generation is far less enamored with the career path. The jobs are open. And unlike the old days, where someone like me left a great gig at News Corp for a 4-month part time $10 an hour plus commission job selling tickets for the last place Dodgers, there aren't droves lining up. What a next two years we're going to see. I'm betting on live. Always have. But maybe, just maybe, there's going to be the first correction in costs in 30+ years.